Is Bernie Sanders making a late run for an upset in Iowa and New Hampshire? With a month to go before the first step to the Democratic convention in July, Sanders releases his fundraising figures for the fourth quarter of 2019. He raised nearly $35 million from over 1.8 million donors.
Prediction markets still have Joe Biden as the odds on winner at 39%. Sanders is second at 27% with South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg in third at 13%. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has dropped to fourth at 12% while Hillary Clinton who hasn’t said she won’t run, is at 5%.
Our prediction: Sanders does well in Iowa and New Hampshire (close to his home state of Vermont. But he runs into trouble closer to Super Tuesday as the primaries head south and west. Clinton presents herself as the ‘centrist savior’ and wins the nomination in a brokered convention. As the stock markets takes all this in…the S&P rallies to 3,500 in the spring before a double digit correction ahead of the November election.